Changement climatique et migrations : les enjeux sécuritaires de demain

Climate change and migration: the security challenges of tomorrow

Global warming induces climate change.

Its impact on migratory flows is the subject of increasing attention, both from governments and from researchers, in terms of the number of people affected and the geographical areas concerned.



Migrations are mostly exposed as "new" phenomena, or as an inclination for future decades.

And yet history shows us that this is absolutely nothing new.

This is why during the first formulations of systematic theories of migrations. Ravenstein already wrote in 1889, "unattractive climate" the fact "of having produced and still producing migratory currents"

Two decades later (in 1911) Ellen Churchill Semple, an American geographer said that "the search for better land, a milder climate and easier living conditions is at the origin of many population movements, the motivations of the latter necessarily leading them to an environment very different from their original habitat.

However, for about forty years (end of the 1980s), almost all the theoretical syntheses on international migration no longer take into account these factors which were already studied ninety years ago.


The causes

There are 3 major environmental causes that induce the migration of populations against their will.

Desertification and drought, floods and storms and sea level rise


Desertification and drought

This phenomenon affected between 2000 and 2008, 664 million people. It takes shape during climatic disasters such as droughts, forest fires or extreme temperatures.

Floods and storms

These climatic phenomena suddenly affect populations and forces them to migrate.

An estimated 792 million people were displaced between 2000 and 2008 due to flooding. And 39 million by tropical cyclones and storms

sea ​​level rise

This cause is obvious, some photos show banks that have disappeared under water in the space of a few decades. This phenomenon is irreversible but foreseeable and can be made possible.

According to MacGranahan, 10.5% of the population would live below 10 meters above sea level. This would make them populations at risk. (602 million people)



Future climate change will not help matters.

Some areas will become uninhabitable and indigenous populations will have to migrate to countries that are favorable to life and development.

Massive migratory flows will be visible in the coming decades.

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